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Friday, 18 October 2002

Give me and axe and show me where to point it

Adrian comments on my previous post:

"It's all very well and good talking about how much money MMORPGs make - forget about Everquest, I estimated that Korea's hugely popular 'Lineage' MMORPG has over half a billion dollars flowing in every year from subscriptions. However, it's far from proven that our experience with MMORPGs will directly translate to immersive fiction. Furthermore, even if it did (which I don't think it does), there's still what you could call the 'first mover disadvantage'. There just isn't enough interest in the genre to make the profits that Everquest et al generate - it's just too immature. And so we get back to the need for a good new game."

The point being here that a game tied to to the Buffyverse would be a a "good new game". As I said, the only thing holding such a venture back is someone being able to point to a bottom line and saying "there is an x percent chance of making profit y if we do this."

"I accept the other points, but waiting for subscribers to chip in is just not viable. It would take far too long for Fox's liking to get 500,000 fans, let alone 50,000 fans, to donate even $10 each, never mind the logistical problems. They can't accept donations, and then make a game - it'd have to occur the other way around."

What you don't do is that you wait for the money to come in before you build your product. Films are pitched on the basis that people will go and see them, rent the DVDs and buy the merchandise, hopefully blinding executives with $ signs. On the premise that if such a film was produced $BigNumber would be received, then (hopefully), you get a greenlight and you can move into production and release. What doesn't happen is that the studios go out canvassing and take ticket revenue for a film that hasn't been produced yet. At some point, someone is going to have to decide to take a risk and reap whatever reward may come. A tipjar isn't ever going to work for a product like this. Right now, what will hopefully work--and what has demonstrably worked for MMORPGs--is the subscription model.

From the Business 2.0 article, we learn that EverQuest was one of Sony's most expensive game projects, with a development budget approaching $5m. The team was spun out (fears over high development costs had escalted), and when the game shipped, the subscribers started crashing in. In droves. Sony then bought Verant for $32m. Sony quite clearly wasn't ready to take the risk with EverQuest--at least, not at the beginning. They were wise to retain a stake in Verant. Verant, however, knew (or at least had enough conviction) that they would have a shot at what's now a half billion dollar market. The risk-taking continues: development of EverQuest II is slated to be around $20m, Star Wars Galaxies is costing around $10m.

The question that remains now is whether first mover disadvantage is really a disadvantage in this genre. Subscription MMORPG developers, I imagine, would say that it isn't: at least, the developers of Lineage and EverQuest would say that they haven't experienced much of a disadvantage as yet - Sony bagged the lucrative contract to develop Star Wars Galaxies, for instance. Take away this quote:

"Virtual worlds won't be a novelty anymore," predicts Paul-Jon McNealey, research director at market analyst Gartner G2. "Online gaming isn't just for hard-core geeks."

Bronwen comments:

"To me, Team Whedon is one of the few obvious candidates for this. They have a thriving, hungry fanbase who sits up all hours of the night already analyzing every small angle the shows are offering to them. Throwing a game at them won't exactly change fan behavior (they're already doing the constant vigilance thing), it will simply give the fans more to chew on. Besides, say, Star Trek and Star Wars, BtVS has arguably the most present and vocal audience on the web."

Aside from the numbers problem (which is an obvious risk anyway when you're publishing content), Bronwen highlights the only other main obstacle. Buffy already has a voracious fanbase. It's whether that audience can be expanded, or whether it's really possible to work within the confines of an already small audience (again, the numbers) that will decide whether this kind of project could go ahead. Then again, genre programming always has this problem. Let's be clear: a Buffyverse game that was true to the Buffyverse, and one that was a good game, would not and could not achieve lowest-common-denominator audience figures. This genre is not the same as Friends and Will & Grace. It will challenge the audience and demand that they respond. It's not passive and it doesn't seem to be broadcast to the player - what it does seem to be is tailored (and in a way it is, when it's done properly). A Buffyverse game will not be a mass market game. Then again, MMORPGs aren't mass market games. They still make money, though. Solitaire might be the most popular PC platform game, but it doesn't stop other games from being made.

Summary: Tom summarises the articles and ideas that have preceded this post.

Previously: Once more, with feeling, I've got a theory and Blurring the lines.

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